DRAMATIC growth in aviation and the ever decreasing cost of flying is set to derail any attempt we make to reduce carbon dioxide emissions here on the ground according to the information published in the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee Report "Budget 2003 and Aviation".
Aviation (2000/2001 data) accounts for 30 million tonnes of UK carbon dioxide emissions - out of a total excluding aviation of 572 million tonnes. However aircraft also release water vapour and nitrous oxides and they do it high in the atmosphere. Both these have a global warming effect too. This enhanced effect is know as radiative forcing (RF) and means that the carbon dioxide released by aircraft must be multiplied by at least 2.5 to be comparable to a similar weight of carbon dioxide released on the ground.
So that 30 million tonnes becomes 75 million with RF. And it gets worse! In 2030 the Dept for Transport estimate aircraft emissions to be 70-80 million tonnes which with RF becomes 175-200 million tonnes. Our current ground based emissions are 572 million tonnes - the government target for 2050 is therefore 229 million tonnes (down 60%). It doesn't take a genius to work out that by 2030 aircraft will account for 90% of the 2050 target. Which doesn't leave much for the rest of us.......
For the report in full read: HoCEACBudget2003Aviation.pdf (239 Kb)